Ross Report Week 3

Soapbox:
The ongoing indoctrination of the concept of Non BCS conferences or teams continues to wear down college football fandom. Most have jumped on the bandwagon as easily as high school teenagers adopt a new "cool" word hatched by the in crowd. The idea that Div I is really two different divisions is not new, and honestly I actually agree that this is the case.

There is a distinct division among football programs in Div IA. I find it hard to actually motivate the existence of more than 96 teams out of the 119 currently listed as top level schools. It just doesn't add up. While the current BCS would have you believe that 66 teams are a cut above the rest of Div IA, the reality is staring us blank in the face. When Stanford (one of the chosen 66) Gets beat by a Div IAA team that was Div II Independant in 2003, one has to question just what is the difference between the other 53 teams at the top level that keeps them out of the clubhouse.

Now before Beauty Contest Sycophants raise their hackles, just be clear on the fact that I am NOT an anti BCS evangelist looking to raze the "evil" empire to the ground. I believe in market forces doing their job. A Smithian at heart I accept the BCS as being legitimate as long as it is able to exist. Sure many may cry about cartel building and whip out their Sherman Anti Trust Buster membership card, but the reality is that cartels and monopolies can only exist as long as the parts are in a unity of purpose. Any difinitive change in the climate, and the BCS could be rocked hard enough to tumble and fall. The BCS exists, because market forces allow it to exist.

Do you think that Microsoft has really been hurt by all the antitrust litigation? Do you really think that the world of Software is an even playing field? Any real moves to bust the BCS through ligitation and Antitrust efforts will only waste taxpayers valuable contributions to the government. Sure they may put a moratorium on the current BCS structure "forcing" the BCS to open its doors, but just like Microsoft, the BCS has several options at their disposal to render any decisions made in court useless. I will broach these alternatives in another report, I promise.

Personally I don't see this happening. What I do see happening however is the BCS expanding by plucking up the best of the rest so to speak. Now they might not see 96 teams as being BCS worthy, but with NCAA president Myles Brand on the academic warpath threatening to eliminate Div IA and Div IAA and replace it with simply Div I, the BCS charter members will be forced to take steps necessary to protect their NCAA voting majority.

If Brand decides to pull the trigger on opening up the division, look for the BCS to basically become the new Div IA and the rest just Div I. The BCS will need to strengthen their voting position and that will mean including enough major programs to keep their majority. Now if the NCAA had a 1 school 1 vote system, that would make things rather difficult for the BCS, and it would be highly unlikely for them to want to dilute their organization with that many teams, but since the system was changed to a system where voting power is based on the amount of money each school spends on athletics the BCS needs only to garner a smaller percentage of the remaining 173 schools. This is why I see 96 schools as the future power division of collegiate football.

Based on what they spend for their athletics programs, growth potential in the local market as well as overall performance for the entire athletic program here is the not so short list of the remaining 30

MWC
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Utah
Wyoming

C-USA
Alabama-Birmingham
Central Florida
East Carolina
Houston
Marshall
Memphis
Rice
Southern Miss
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
UTEP

MAC
Bowling Green
Miami (OH)
Toledo
Northern Illinois

WAC
Fresno State
Boise State
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Nevada

IND
Temple

Now some of you are wondering where the service acadamies are, especially Air Force and Navy. As much as I would like to include them, I think that economically they would be better off in the new Div I. Most of the Athletes in all sports at the top schools are looking to take their game to a professional level. The athletes at the service academies have a more vital mission instead of entertaining millions of sports fans. Sure a few have ended up in the pros, but given the nature of the schools in question, there can be no mistaking why the athletes attend.

Until this eventuality we are left with more condescention by color commentators who have graduated from ESPN Malarky U attempting to sell us on the idea that BCS teams are much faster, stronger, deeper, better, etc. Maybe the secret lay in the marketing mix my friends...

Road Fear Factor:
...Just how good is a BCS conference vs NCM schools. (Note that from this point on the role of Non BCS will be played by Non Charter Member since all Div IA schools officially belong to the BCS) We have been subjected to the constant mantra of BCS superiority without any real substance. The rhetoric waxes thin when looking at things from ground level. Question: Why do Vegas sportsliners spot the home team 3 points on the spread? Answer: Because of home field advantage. Is this a real phenomenon, or just window dressing?

There are so many factors to playing on the road, that even without a crowd, the home field presents a challenge to the visitors. Home is where you want to be when playing a football game. That fact has long escaped BCS pundits when dressing up their charts, stats, and quips concerning the so called power conferences, or has it?

This weeks Fear Factor will focus on the ACC. They are a new and more powerful conference since they have taken the best of the Big East with them. They are getting alot of love right now, and it would be interesting to see just how strong their Road Fear Factor is. The RFF is a chart showing the record and winning percentage on the road by BCS teams vs NCM schools since 1985. Why 1985? Because BYU won the national championship in 1984 and that is when this whole BCS mess actually got started.

Can a team who never travels to NCM schools to play really consider themselves superior as a team? Sure they can claim economic superiority due to their ability to fix more home games, but it doesn't say a whole lot about their teams ability to win when the deck is stacked in someone elses hand.

Note: RL= Road Loss RW= Road Win NCM R%= Percentage of Road Games played at NCM schools. NCM RW%= Number of Road Games won at NCM Schools. NCM W%= Number of games won vs NCM Schools. Also this is based on regular season games. Bowl games are not calculated, and also any games ending in a tie were not considered.

ACC	W	L	H	RL	RW	Tot	NCM R%	NCM RW%	NCM W%
Clemson	25	1	26	0	0	26	0.000	0.000	0.962
North Carolina State	30	9	32	2	1	39	0.077	0.143	0.769
Duke	23	8	22	5	4	31	0.290	0.444	0.742
Maryland	17	3	16	2	2	20	0.200	0.500	0.850
Wake Forest	34	12	29	7	10	46	0.370	0.588	0.739
Virginia Tech	47	13	42	7	11	60	0.300	0.611	0.783
Boston College	34	12	24	8	14	46	0.478	0.636	0.739
Georgia Tech	22	2	21	1	2	24	0.125	0.667	0.917
Virginia	27	6	27	2	4	33	0.182	0.667	0.818
Florida State	40	2	32	2	8	42	0.238	0.800	0.952
Miami FL	48	3	36	2	13	51	0.294	0.867	0.941
North Carolina	30	7	27	1	9	37	0.270	0.900	0.811
Total	377	78	334	39	78	455	0.235	0.569	0.835

Clemson is impressive in only losing to one NCM team in twenty years. Of course they have over that period not travelled once to an NCM school. If you were to travel once a year that would at least mean 20 road games. Only Boston College and maybe Virginia Tech and Wake Forest can claim that they risk travel. What the chart does not reveal is who the most popular opponants over that time span were for the entire conference. You ready for this impressive top ten list of NCM and other opponants? Here it is: Army, Navy, VMI, Appalachian State, Furman, Western Carolina, East Carolina, Citadel, Tulane, and Boston U. What is scary is that some of the losses suffered were at the hands of these teams.

Makes you go hmmmmm when considering what their records might have been like had they spent more time filling in their Div IAA, Div II schedules with Div IA teams out west. I mean a cross town, or three hour drive isn't much of a road trip now is it? North Carolina never left the state living off of Western and East Carolina until they decided to risk one trip to the Rocky Mountains. Result? A good old fashion spanking at the hands of the Utah Utes.

To be honest, if your road schedule vs NCM schools isn't at least 35% or higher, as a program you have no credibility in calling yourself superior. Winning on the road is hard, and I understand the strategic economic need of salting the schedule with winnable home games. But marketing yourself as superior through association with the BCS? It only makes losses like North Carolinas last year all that more painful. The smart strategist would be looking to enhance the level of the opponant. Miami used to travel regularly, but they have scaled down road trips vs NCM teams in recent years. Their record over the first ten years charted was quite impressive. Therefore, victories are considered even greater, and losses not as tough to take. Congratulations to Boston College and Wake Forest for daring to test your mettle. Sure you have paid the price, but you have more credibility than your peers.

Conference Keys:
Whew, what is that smell? It must be my picking skills from last week. That had to be the worst week of my career. The only thing I got right was UTEP squeaking by Houston. Ouch. Well I am here to redeem myself and pick up the pace a little.

ACC
Boston College 28 vs Clemson 19
This game has huge implications for the conference. Both teams are coming off of heartbreaking losses last week. The winner here gets to keep rolling towards a chance to compete for the conference crown. The loser can kiss their chances good bye. While this will not go down to the wire, it will be a closely contested game. Boston will not let this one get out of hand like they did last week.

(15) Georgia Tech 12 vs (4) Virginia Tech 25
Reggie Ball probably won't be ready for this one, and if he is, he won't be 100%. For defensive afficionados, this is the game to watch. Points will be scored on turnovers. This one gets rough early. Virginia Tech Defense keeps rolling at home.

Big East
(9)Louisville vs South Florida-EVEN
Yes this may be crazy, but this one is too close to call. Louisville did not look so hot against Kentucky on the road, and while the Cardinal offense looks to be clicking behind Brohm, Louisvilles run defense will be tested vs a Bulls rushing attack that is quite capable of slowing the game down. Louisville could be in for a letdown game to start the conference schedule off. Have to give the edge to the Cardinal regardless.

Big Ten
(11) Purdue 24 vs Minnesota 34
The Gophers are on the cusp of entering the polls, and have been a poster child for offensive highlights. Purdue is a step above in talent and will test Minnesota. Lots of points this game, but Boilermakers keep it competitive.

(14) Michigan vs Wisconsin-EVEN
With six conference opponants still undefeated and the rest at 2-1, it is so hard to really know how strong these teams are. Wisconsin has been all over the place, scoring points at whirlwind pace only to shut down almost completely last week vs North Carolina. Michigan took their frustrations out on a directional school after losing a close one the week before to the Irish. This one may just go down to the wire. Michigan by a nose.

Big XII
No Conference Games this week

C-USA
Memphis 29 vs Tulsa 18
With alot of C-USA preoccupied by the aftermath of Katrina and the onslaught of Rita there isn't a whole lot to cheer about in Conference USA. C-USA is all about the East right now as the western division seems to be UTEP and than nobody else. Tulsa has a chance to step up in this game after destroying the not so Mean Green last week. Memphis hung tough vs Ole Miss to start the season, and had a chance to refine their game in a scrimmage vs Chattanooga. The Tigers make fewer mistakes in this one which will be the difference.

MAC
Kent State 25 vs Ohio 18
Frank Solich would certainly like to reflect more on his first home victory vs Pittsburgh than on the shallacking his Bobcats received last week in Blacksburg. Well the Bobcats will be home, but the Golden Flashes are having more success on offense.

MWC
TCU 16 vs BYU 21
Who would have ever thought that this would be a contest of defensive prowess. Both teams have proven early to be difficult to score on. TCU's offense however has been the more anemic of the two. They however, seemed to receive a charge last week when showcasing a freshmen rb Aaron Brown. BYUs run defense is the best the Horn Frogs have faced all year, and with Tye Gunn in a funk, don't expect a score fest.

PAC10
(1) USC 40 vs (24) Oregon 27
Two high flying offenses collide in Eugene. Pete Carroll knows what to expect from Duck OC Gary Crowton having bested him twice while he was at BYU. The Trojan defense will be the big difference as USC continues to dominate.

SEC
(10) Tennessee vs (3) LSU-EVEN
If the Volunteers are going to have the slightest chance to win the SEC title, they have to make good on this one. It is too early to tell the mindset of LSU after a couragous effort last week through the aftermatch of Katrina. With Rita on her way, Tigers could be distracted by the enormity of it all. Battered and bruised inside, LSU may still have enough to deal with Tennessees anemic offense. Tigers have the edge under Monday night lights.

Sunbelt
Florida Intl 17 vs Arkansas State 36
Arkansas State played a spirted game on the road vs Oklahoma State. A win at home may give them enough confidence to make a run at the Sunbelt title.

WAC
Hawaii 25 vs Idaho 33
The WAC is feeling the drag of the new membership. It seems to have cast a miasma over the entire conference as not a single team has a winning record; not even WAC standouts Boise State and Fresno State. The Vandals are making a go of it however, and their offense has looked more capable of scoring than June Jones's run and shoot. Idaho finally gets to play at home after the long early roadtrip. Hawaii is not a very good road team. Idaho notches their first win of the season.

Last Week 2-5 (.286) Season 2-5 (.286)

Whispers:
Pittsburgh Panthers Dave Wannstedt may be feeling the heat already. If Pitt actually loses this weekend vs Youngstown State, Dave could be looking for another job by the end of the season. Certain administrators have whipped out the shortleash given Wannstedts recent coaching history.

Fan-Dumb:
Stanford Cardinal fans have alot to be angry about, but sometimes one should think before ranting:

SeeknDestroy states: "Stop the whining! Stanford Football is a Division II caliber program. Ted Leland is the Athletic Director and is responsible for the total success of Stanford Athletics. Under his leadership Stanford has succeeded in being named the top athletic program in the country numerous times (Sears Cup). The only reason the University still has a football team is it is required to be in the PAC 10. The school and the athletic department are content with a non event football team because it allows them to collect their 1/10th of the conference revenue and put the money to work accross all sports. Over the past 25 years the program has had only eight winnning seasons. Building a new stadium is just another waste of money that makes it appear to the conference that Stanford is committed to Football. Bottom line is the school has a season ticket base of under 10,000 seat and those seats are held by under 4000 holders. This is not going to be cured by better seating, restrooms or luxury boxes. The only cure for the progam is to win. Everybody love a winner. Unfortunately, and this is where the Stanford education should kick in, the admissions are too difficult to build a winning program. Get used to mediocrity and losing to D II schools it is Stanford's destiny."

Okay seek, I am hoping that you are excersizing a little hyperbole here, but you seem a bit earnest. Stanford in no way is a Div II program. Even on their worst day they couldn't be classified as such. Yes the UC Davis loss is humiliating to say the least, but stop and think about it. How many Div IA teams have not even enjoyed the success of 8 winning seasons in the past 25. Remember these are winning seasons in the PAC10 which tends to be very competitive.

Stanford won the PAC10 Championship in 1999 and played a closely contested Rose Bowl game vs Wisconsin. Ahem, didn't Stanford also lose to San Jose State that same year during the season? Stanford continually competes for the Directors Cup due to a standard of excellence across the board. Football at Stanford is not an ornamental fixture to appease PAC10 Presidents. There is a strong push and desire to win by the administration.

Admissions has nothing to do with why Stanford is struggling. There are plenty of schools at the Div IA level that are picking up Ivy League players and doing well with them. As far as ticket sales go, you are right, winning solves this problem. Stanford will see brighter days, and mark my words more than one PAC10 foe will struggle vs the Cardinal this season.

ROSS OUT-->