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Redux

Road Fear Factor: Just how good is a BCS conference vs NCM schools. (Note that from this point on the role of Non BCS will be played by Non Charter Member since all Div IA schools officially belong to the BCS) We have been subjected to the constant mantra of BCS superiority without any real substance. The rhetoric waxes thin when looking at things from ground level. Question: Why do Vegas sportsliners spot the home team 3 points on the spread? Answer: Because of home field advantage. Is this a real phenomenon, or just window dressing?

There are so many factors to playing on the road, that even without a crowd; the home field presents a challenge to the visitors. Home is where you want to be when playing a football game. That fact has long escaped BCS pundits when dressing up their charts, stats, and quips concerning the so called power conferences, or has it?

This weeks Fear Factor will focus on the ACC. They are a new and more powerful conference since they have taken the best of the Big East with them. They are getting allot of love right now, and it would be interesting to see just how strong their Road Fear Factor is. The RFF is a chart showing the record and winning percentage on the road by BCS teams vs NCM schools since 1985. Why 1985? Because BYU won the national championship in 1984 and that is when this whole BCS mess actually got started.

Can a team who never travels to NCM schools to play really consider themselves superior as a team? Sure they can claim economic superiority due to their ability to fix more home games, but it doesn't say a whole lot about their teams ability to win when the deck is stacked in someone else’s hand.

Note: RL= Road Loss RW= Road Win NCM R%= Percentage of Road Games played at NCM schools. NCM RW%= Number of Road Games won at NCM Schools. NCM W%= Number of games won vs NCM Schools. Also this is based on regular season games. Bowl games are not calculated, and also any games ending in a tie were not considered.

ACC	W	L	H	RL	RW	Tot	NCM R%	NCM RW%	NCM W%
Clemson	25	1	26	0	0	26	0.000	0.000	0.962
North Carolina State	30	9	32	2	1	39	0.077	0.143	0.769
Duke	23	8	22	5	4	31	0.290	0.444	0.742
Maryland	17	3	16	2	2	20	0.200	0.500	0.850
Wake Forest	34	12	29	7	10	46	0.370	0.588	0.739
Virginia Tech	47	13	42	7	11	60	0.300	0.611	0.783
Boston College	34	12	24	8	14	46	0.478	0.636	0.739
Georgia Tech	22	2	21	1	2	24	0.125	0.667	0.917
Virginia	27	6	27	2	4	33	0.182	0.667	0.818
Florida State	40	2	32	2	8	42	0.238	0.800	0.952
Miami FL	48	3	36	2	13	51	0.294	0.867	0.941
North Carolina	30	7	27	1	9	37	0.270	0.900	0.811
Total	377	78	334	39	78	455	0.235	0.569	0.835

Clemson is impressive in only losing to one NCM team in twenty years. Of course they have over that period not traveled once to an NCM school. If you were to travel once a year that would at least mean 20 road games. Only Boston College and maybe Virginia Tech and Wake Forest can claim that they risk travel. What the chart does not reveal is who the most popular opponents over that time span were for the entire conference. Are you ready for this impressive top ten list of NCM and other opponents? Here it is: Army, Navy, VMI, Appalachian State, Furman, Western Carolina, East Carolina, Citadel, Tulane, and Boston U. What is scary is that some of the losses suffered were at the hands of these teams.

Makes you go hmmmmm when considering what their records might have been like had they spent more time filling in their Div IAA, Div II schedules with Div IA teams out west. I mean a cross town, or three hour drive isn't much of a road trip now is it? North Carolina never left the state living off of Western and East Carolina until they decided to risk one trip to the Rocky Mountains. Result? A good old fashion spanking at the hands of the Utah Utes.

To be honest, if your road schedule vs NCM schools isn't at least 35% or higher, as a program you have no credibility in calling yourself superior. Winning on the road is hard, and I understand the strategic economic need of salting the schedule with winnable home games. But marketing your program as superior through association with the BCS? It only makes losses like North Carolinas last year all that more painful. The smart strategist would be looking to enhance the level of the opponent. Miami used to travel regularly, but they have scaled down road trips vs NCM teams in recent years. Their record over the first ten years charted was quite impressive. Therefore, victories are considered even greater, and losses not as tough to take. Congratulations to Boston College and Wake Forest for daring to test your mettle. Sure you have paid the price, but you have more credibility than your peers.