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Redux

Road Fear Factor: Just how good is a BCS conference vs NCM schools. (Note that from this point on the role of Non BCS will be played by Non Charter Member since all Div IA schools officially belong to the BCS) We have been subjected to the constant mantra of BCS superiority without any real substance. The rhetoric waxes thin when looking at things from ground level. Question: Why do Vegas sportsliners spot the home team 3 points on the spread? Answer: Because of home field advantage. Is this a real phenomenon, or just window dressing?

There are so many factors to playing on the road, that even without a crowd; the home field presents a challenge to the visitors. Home is where you want to be when playing a football game. That fact has long escaped BCS pundits when dressing up their charts, stats, and quips concerning the so called power conferences, or has it?

This weeks Fear Factor will focus on the ACC. They are a new and more powerful conference since they have taken the best of the Big East with them. They are getting allot of love right now, and it would be interesting to see just how strong their Road Fear Factor is. The RFF is a chart showing the record and winning percentage on the road by BCS teams vs NCM schools since 1985. Why 1985? Because BYU won the national championship in 1984 and that is when this whole BCS mess actually got started.

Can a team who never travels to NCM schools to play really consider themselves superior as a team? Sure they can claim economic superiority due to their ability to fix more home games, but it doesn't say a whole lot about their teams ability to win when the deck is stacked in someone else’s hand.

Note: RL= Road Loss RW= Road Win NCM R%= Percentage of Road Games played at NCM schools. NCM RW%= Number of Road Games won at NCM Schools. NCM W%= Number of games won vs NCM Schools. Also this is based on regular season games. Bowl games are not calculated, and also any games ending in a tie were not considered.

ACC	W	L	H	RL	RW	Tot	NCM R%	NCM RW%	NCM W%
Clemson	25	1	26	0	0	26	0.000	0.000	0.962
North Carolina State	30	9	32	2	1	39	0.077	0.143	0.769
Duke	23	8	22	5	4	31	0.290	0.444	0.742
Maryland	17	3	16	2	2	20	0.200	0.500	0.850
Wake Forest	34	12	29	7	10	46	0.370	0.588	0.739
Virginia Tech	47	13	42	7	11	60	0.300	0.611	0.783
Boston College	34	12	24	8	14	46	0.478	0.636	0.739
Georgia Tech	22	2	21	1	2	24	0.125	0.667	0.917
Virginia	27	6	27	2	4	33	0.182	0.667	0.818
Florida State	40	2	32	2	8	42	0.238	0.800	0.952
Miami FL	48	3	36	2	13	51	0.294	0.867	0.941
North Carolina	30	7	27	1	9	37	0.270	0.900	0.811
Total	377	78	334	39	78	455	0.235	0.569	0.835

Clemson is impressive in only losing to one NCM team in twenty years. Of course they have over that period not traveled once to an NCM school. If you were to travel once a year that would at least mean 20 road games. Only Boston College and maybe Virginia Tech and Wake Forest can claim that they risk travel. What the chart does not reveal is who the most popular opponents over that time span were for the entire conference. Are you ready for this impressive top ten list of NCM and other opponents? Here it is: Army, Navy, VMI, Appalachian State, Furman, Western Carolina, East Carolina, Citadel, Tulane, and Boston U. What is scary is that some of the losses suffered were at the hands of these teams.

Makes you go hmmmmm when considering what their records might have been like had they spent more time filling in their Div IAA, Div II schedules with Div IA teams out west. I mean a cross town, or three hour drive isn't much of a road trip now is it? North Carolina never left the state living off of Western and East Carolina until they decided to risk one trip to the Rocky Mountains. Result? A good old fashion spanking at the hands of the Utah Utes.

To be honest, if your road schedule vs NCM schools isn't at least 35% or higher, as a program you have no credibility in calling yourself superior. Winning on the road is hard, and I understand the strategic economic need of salting the schedule with winnable home games. But marketing your program as superior through association with the BCS? It only makes losses like North Carolinas last year all that more painful. The smart strategist would be looking to enhance the level of the opponent. Miami used to travel regularly, but they have scaled down road trips vs NCM teams in recent years. Their record over the first ten years charted was quite impressive. Therefore, victories are considered even greater, and losses not as tough to take. Congratulations to Boston College and Wake Forest for daring to test your mettle. Sure you have paid the price, but you have more credibility than your peers.

M.A.S.H on Call (Big East vs. MWC)

Well ten days ago I lit a fire under a fairly high traffic conference message
board by posting a little Ross Report redux. The amazing thing is that it ended
up creating a battle royale between fans from two conferences on the cusp
of the BCS. One on the inside edge and one on the outside edge.

Not only did the post thread spool rapidly before my eyes, but frayed ends
found themselves quickly intertwined with other threads which have now
knotted themselves in page after page of unsupported misinformed rants,
not so subtle insults, and outright rage.

The entire cast of characters was present:

The self appointed pseudo intellectual was first to arrive to clarify to all
would be readers that my post lacked any validity, credibility and in later
posts, I was revealed by this bastion of wisdom to be nothing more than
a ego hungry charlatan. He held no punches when he critiqued my
writing and further exposed my love affair with Roget.

The well meaning would be warrior was there fighting my battle as he
saw it. Of course this young (his expressions painted him as such) fighter 
lacked the pondus of automotonical emotionality posessed by the
pi(short for pseudo intellectual), and in his heated state fought on grounds
that carried him truly away from the initial point of my post.

Other characters joined in the fray including the regular supporting cast
of pro and con artists looking to score a few points for their respective sides
to an argument that I never even broached, but somehow had initiated.

A few posts into the life of the thread, and the real opponants began to
arrive. These were inside the edge fans looking to defend their maligned
conference on the enemies “turf”. Their missiles fell harmlessly in
no-mans land where this argument quickly found itself.

More and more began to pile on with various adaptations of the standard
fighting tactics used in most conference a' conference verbal battles.
Stats were fired left and right to motivate everything from
superiority, butts in seats to athletic directors paychecks. When that failed
to dent either side, weapons were exchange and political salvos began to fly.

Scenarios that would make John Grisham proud grew out of thin air as
claims of poll rigging, payoffs and extortion were aimed at those whose
launchers will filled with grenades of bad tv market, poor ticket sales, and
unadept administrator schrapnel.

When all else failed, last ditch efforts of emotionally charged arguments
of “we're better than you” combined with personal attacks on the posters
character were used like bayonnets on the end of an M16 with an empty
banana clip.

The BCS most certainly has created a charge, and this experience is stark
evidence that for college football fans, there is no room for standoff-ish
Swiss diplomacy, here there is only FOR or AGAINST.

On Friday I will make my way into this knotted ball of craziness that
pitted Big East fans against those of the Mountain West. In an effort to
help many of these embattled football veterans to make sense of it all.
Stay tuned...

Ross Out-->

Conference PPR Week 13

Some shifting going on as we wind down this 2005 season. Texas and USC have done much to boost their conference strength while the WAC suffers from New Mexico State, Idaho and Utah State. The MWC has due to parity moved passed the Big East which has become top heavy and bottom weak.

Rank	Conference	Perf Power	Prev Week
1	PAC 10	53.938	47.063
2	BIG XII	52.537	48.278
3	BIG TEN	40.503	42.260
4	SEC	40.316	38.253
5	ACC	38.843	42.420
6	MWC	30.894	30.110
7	BIG EAST	23.663	30.545
8	CUSA	15.356	17.108
9	SUNBELT	6.313	4.936
10	MAC	3.501	4.263
11	IND	-47.635	-23.175
12	WAC	-51.173	-15.057

Power Performance Rankings Week 13

Yes, we missed week 12..and yes we are truly sorry about that. Other things took priority. Well it is week 13 and we are back. Much remains as is expected, but there are a few surprises that deviate considerably from the established red carpet Beauty Contest Stars list.

Rank	Conference	Team	W	L	PPR
1	PAC 10	USC	11	0	248.850
2	BIG XII	Texas	11	0	246.382
3	SEC	LSU	10	1	124.117
4	ACC	Virginia Tech	10	1	121.193
5	MWC	TCU	10	1	117.742
6	SEC	Alabama	9	2	107.651
7	PAC 10	UCLA	9	1	98.626
8	PAC 10	Oregon	10	1	97.516
9	BIG TEN	Penn State	10	1	92.844
10	ACC	Miami	9	2	92.633
11	BIG EAST	West Virginia	9	1	88.180
12	BIG TEN	Ohio State	9	2	84.368
13	SEC	Georgia	9	2	80.815
14	IND	Notre Dame	9	2	80.251
15	SEC	Auburn	9	2	76.350
16	BIG TEN	Wisconsin	9	3	73.959
17	BIG XII	Texas Tech	9	2	71.261
18	ACC	Boston College	8	3	69.350
19	BIG TEN	Michigan	7	4	66.863
20	BIG XII	Colorado	7	4	62.622
21	BIG EAST	Louisville	8	2	61.986
22	WAC	Boise State	9	3	61.353
23	CUSA	UCF	8	3	61.265
24	WAC	Fresno State	8	3	61.177
25	MAC	Toledo	8	3	56.404
26	SEC	Florida	8	3	55.120
27	BIG TEN	Northwestern	7	4	55.111
28	BIG TEN	Iowa	7	4	54.994
29	ACC	Clemson	7	4	54.005
30	WAC	Nevada	8	3	53.849
31	PAC 10	California	7	4	53.638
32	CUSA	UTEP	8	3	53.195
33	BIG TEN	Minnesota	7	4	53.107
34	ACC	Georgia Tech	7	4	52.917
35	BIG XII	Oklahoma	7	4	51.740
36	SEC	South Carolina	7	4	48.465
37	MAC	Miami-Ohio	7	4	47.760
38	BIG EAST	South Florida	6	4	47.534
39	CUSA	Tulsa	7	4	46.574
40	MAC	Western Michigan	7	4	45.617
41	BIG XII	Iowa State	7	4	45.564
42	ACC	Florida State	7	4	45.524
43	MAC	Northern Illinois	7	4	45.343
44	BIG XII	Nebraska	7	4	43.969
45	BIG EAST	Rutgers	7	4	43.716
46	MWC	New Mexico	6	5	38.968
47	MAC	Bowling Green	6	5	38.307
48	MWC	BYU	6	5	37.701
49	WAC	Louisiana Tech	6	4	37.650
50	PAC 10	Arizona State	6	5	36.457
51	MAC	Central Michigan	6	5	36.226
52	MWC	Colorado State	6	5	36.191
53	IND	Navy	6	4	35.289
54	CUSA	Southern Miss	6	5	35.096
55	SUNBELT	Louisiana-Lafayette	6	5	33.245
56	MWC	Utah	6	5	33.134
57	ACC	North Carolina State	6	5	32.614
58	BIG EAST	Pittsburgh	5	6	32.063
59	BIG XII	Missouri	6	5	31.786
60	CUSA	Memphis	6	5	31.247
61	ACC	Virginia	6	5	30.852
62	SUNBELT	Arkansas State	6	5	29.862
63	MAC	Akron	6	5	29.509
64	ACC	Maryland	5	6	28.788
65	PAC 10	Stanford	5	6	27.516
66	BIG TEN	Michigan State	5	6	26.361
67	BIG EAST	Connecticut	5	5	26.328
68	BIG XII	Kansas	6	5	25.595
69	MWC	San Diego State	5	6	24.426
70	CUSA	Houston	5	6	24.398
71	ACC	North Carolina	5	6	23.867
72	SEC	Tennessee	5	6	23.648
73	CUSA	SMU	5	6	23.324
74	CUSA	East Carolina	5	6	23.028
75	PAC 10	Oregon State	5	6	22.914
76	CUSA	UAB	5	6	22.762
77	SEC	Vanderbilt	5	6	22.199
78	BIG TEN	Purdue	5	6	22.110
79	WAC	Hawaii	4	7	20.514
80	BIG XII	Texas A&M	5	6	19.302
81	SUNBELT	Middle Tenn	4	6	18.938
82	BIG XII	Kansas State	5	6	17.346
83	IND	Army	4	6	17.334
84	MWC	Wyoming	4	7	15.277
85	SUNBELT	Florida International	4	6	13.785
86	SUNBELT	Louisiana-Monroe	5	6	13.414
87	MAC	Ball State	4	7	11.415
88	ACC	Wake Forest	4	7	10.903
89	BIG XII	Baylor	5	6	10.128
90	MWC	Air Force	4	7	9.362
91	CUSA	Marshall	4	7	8.167
92	SEC	Arkansas	4	7	7.405
93	SUNBELT	Troy State	4	7	7.364
94	MAC	Eastern Michigan	4	7	4.950
95	BIG XII	Oklahoma State	4	7	4.755
96	MAC	Ohio	4	7	3.502
97	BIG TEN	Indiana	4	7	2.739
98	PAC 10	Washington State	4	7	2.012
99	BIG EAST	Cincinnati	4	7	0.600
100	SEC	Mississippi	3	8	-5.725
101	SEC	Kentucky	3	8	-6.148
102	WAC	Utah State	3	8	-10.175
103	PAC 10	Arizona	3	8	-19.469
104	SUNBELT	North Texas	2	9	-25.090
105	PAC 10	Washington	2	9	-28.676
106	MWC	UNLV	2	9	-34.759
107	WAC	Idaho	2	9	-38.987
108	SUNBELT	Florida Atlantic	2	9	-41.014
109	WAC	San Jose State	3	8	-48.292
110	SEC	Mississippi State	3	8	-50.103
111	CUSA	Tulane	2	9	-63.730
112	CUSA	Rice	1	10	-81.052
113	BIG TEN	Illinois	2	9	-86.919
114	ACC	Duke	1	10	-96.535
115	BIG EAST	Syracuse	1	10	-111.103
116	MAC	Kent State	1	10	-132.875
117	MAC	Buffalo	1	10	-144.146
118	IND	Temple	0	11	-323.416
119	WAC	New Mexico State	0	12	-597.644

WEEK 12 Picks

With the season closing out and teams jockeying for bowl positions, many remaining games have big significance. Some are betting their BCS bowl hopes on the outcomes, while others are hoping for a chance at post season play, even if it is in the (Pick your sponsor) drizzling rain, yawn, is there something more interesting Bowl. Rivals go at it this week, and anything can happen. This may end up being one of my worst weeks, but hey it is all good, even if my reputation for picking is wrung out to dry.

Three upsets are on the docket this week. Well statistically they are upsets, IMO they are anomalies of the college football landscape.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA


Red Raiders have over the past month gone from Contender to Pretender, and last weeks game vs Oklahoma State only revealed vulnerabilities on the offensive line as well how fragile the skewed balance between running and throwing the ball really is. The Cowboys shut Techs running game down, and made the Redraiders even more one dimensional. As funny as this may sound, the solution to beating Texas Tech is forcing them to throw the ball (as if they needed encouragement to do so.) Oklahoma has been coming into their own over the course of the past month. Stringing together four conference wins in a row. Oklahoma should be up to the task having the ninth ranked rushing defense in the nation. Sooners continue to improve while Texas Tech takes a backseat in the Big XII while falling into that "getting votes" category.


ARKANSAS STATE at ARMY

To be honest does anyone sans those with ties to the USArmy really care about this game? Well having served in the Army myself, I have to admit that I really don't care about this game. It is just really hard to get up for a game between a Div IA imposter and a service academy that has stunk it up for almost a decade. Well the consolation is that at least the game will be held at West Point where the crowd will be twice the size of anything Arkansas State could possibly drum up. In any case, the statistics show the Indians winning this one, but I have to wonder just how savvy this team is vs Div IA outside the Sunbelt, even a lowly Black Knights team. While it won't be a pretty game, Arkansas State will find themselves wondering if anyone in their conference can win 6 games for that all important New Orleans Bowl. Black Knights of Army make it 4 W's in a row.


CLEMSON vs SOUTH CAROLINA

This game statistically sees the Clemson Tigers winning. This team has had allot of close calls this season, losing OT games vs Miami and BC. South Carolina started slowly, but has put together consistantly better looking victories over SEC opponants, and comes into this game riding a five game winning streak. This game is not in Death Valley, but the crowd will be just as loud as Gamecock fans will be out in mass numbers cheering on Spurrier's kids. This one is going to go back and forth with some ugly behavior as there is no love lost between these two teams for Dixie Dominance. South Carolina scratch and peck out a win in Columbia.

The rest of my picks for this week:

Last week 32-17 (.646) Season 236-116 (.670)

Teams in blue are picked to win. Teams in red are picked to win as upsets. Teams in green are picked to win even though match is picked as even.

		ACC
Virginia Tech		<--	Virginia
Boston College		<--	Maryland
Middle Tennessee		-->	North Carolina State
Duke		-->	North Carolina
Clemson		-->	South Carolina
Georgia Tech		-->	Miami
		Big East
Cincinnati		-->	South Florida
Syracuse		-->	Notre Dame
		Big Ten
Northwestern		<--	Illinois
Minnesota		<--	Iowa
Purdue		<--	Indiana
Ohio State		<--	Michigan
Penn State		<--	Michigan State
		Big XII
Texas Tech		-->	Oklahoma
Oklahoma State		EVEN	Baylor
Missouri		<--	Kansas State
		C-USA
UCF		<--	Rice
East Carolina		EVEN	Marshall
SMU		-->	Houston
UAB		EVEN	UTEP
Tulsa		<--	Tulane
Memphis		-->	Southern Miss
		MAC
Central Michigan		<--	Ball State
Eastern Michigan		<--	Buffalo
Miami-OH		<--	Ohio
		MWC
Air Force		EVEN	New Mexico
Utah		EVEN	BYU
Colorado State		<--	UNLV
Wyoming		EVEN	San Diego State
		PAC10
Washington State		<--	Washington
Oregon State		-->	Oregon
California		<--	Stanford
Fresno State		-->	USC
		SEC
Kentucky		-->	Georgia
Vanderbilt		EVEN	Tennessee
Mississippi State		-->	Arkansas
Alabama		EVEN	Auburn
Clemson		-->	South Carolina
LSU		<--	Mississippi
		Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee		-->	North Carolina State
Arkansas State		-->	Army
W. Kentucky		<--	FIU
La Monroe		<--	North Texas
		WAC
Idaho		<--	Boise State
Nevada		<--	Utah State
New Mexico State		-->	San Jose State
Fresno State		-->	USC

Conference PPR Week 11

Rank	Conference	Perf Power	Prev Week
1	BIG XII	48.278	47.101
2	PAC 10	47.063	42.668
3	ACC	42.420	42.665
4	BIG TEN	42.260	44.209
5	SEC	38.253	36.209
6	BIG EAST	30.545	32.419
7	MWC	30.110	28.483
8	CUSA	17.108	16.163
9	SUNBELT	4.936	2.001
10	MAC	4.263	2.092
11	WAC	-15.057	-8.192
12	IND	-23.175	-23.906